- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?8¢
- Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?2¢
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?14¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vladimir Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s political system following his 2024 reelection, with constitutional amendments enabling him to serve until at least 2030 and potentially 2036. His administration continues to expand military personnel levels, integrate occupied Ukrainian territories, and promote national unity around the Ukraine conflict through State Duma actions and public messaging ahead of September 2026 legislative elections. Domestic approval ratings remain elevated near 86 percent, while opposition figures face sustained restrictions and no organized domestic challenge has emerged. Traders assign low probabilities to an early exit, reflecting the absence of term-limit pressures, elite fractures, or health-related signals within the resolution windows. Upcoming Duma voting and any shifts in war dynamics represent the primary near-term variables that could influence perceptions of regime stability.