- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on or prior to September 9, 2026?22¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 10, 2026?36¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 11, 2026?36¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 12, 2026?2¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 13, 2026?10¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 14, 2026?4¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 15, 2026?4¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 16, 2026?4¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026?4¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 18, 2026?56¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 19, 2026?21¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 20, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has anchored trader expectations around mid-September, following the August 12 release of the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6. Supplemental training on SpaceX data and a reported 2.1-trillion-parameter scale have reinforced the model’s positioning as a capability leap, though xAI has not yet published an official API identifier or model card. Recent testing leaks, including a grok-4-7-0907 slug, suggest internal builds are advancing quickly, yet the 56% implied probability on September 18 reflects typical timeline slippage in large-model releases and uncertainty over whether “released” means API availability, public rollout, or full feature parity. Traders are watching for any further Musk updates or xAI deployment signals ahead of the September 30 cutoff.