- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?1¢
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?7¢
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the December meeting?56¢
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?19¢
- Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?9¢
Recent acceleration in Colombian inflation to 6.29% year-over-year in September—driven by food, services, and regulated items amid El Niño pressures—has reinforced the Banco de la República’s hawkish tilt, following the September 30 decision to raise the policy rate 25 basis points to 12.25% in a split 4-2-1 vote. Analyst surveys show end-2026 inflation expectations holding near 6.8%, with the central bank’s own projections at 6.9% and a 2028 return to the 3% target appearing likely, supporting a restrictive stance through year-end. Trader-implied odds favor no change in December at 48% as the base case after recent tightening, while the 27.5% probability on a further 25 basis point hike reflects ongoing upside risks from domestic demand and wage pressures; the October 30 meeting and incoming data will shape the final path.
Mga panuntunan
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.