- Pagbaba ba ng Fed rate sa pagpupulong ng Setyembre 2026?2¢
- Magkakaroon ba ng Fed rate cut sa Oktubre 2026 na pagpupulong?4¢
- Fed rate cut sa Disyembre 2026 na pagpupulong?13¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent July 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation easing modestly to 3.4% year-over-year from 3.5% in June, with core at 2.5%, while the economy expanded solidly and the labor market remained resilient. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% following its July meeting, citing elevated inflation pressures from supply shocks and uncertainty. Market-implied odds for the September FOMC now favor no change at around 69%, with a notable 31% probability of a 25 basis point hike priced in futures and prediction markets. Traders are monitoring upcoming August inflation releases and the September 15–16 policy decision for signals on whether the Fed will maintain its pause or shift toward tightening amid persistent price pressures above the 2% target.