- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?<1¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?3¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?16¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?34¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?33¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?13¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?2¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?2¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Recent July data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% alongside a 23,000 nonfarm payroll contraction has shaped trader positioning for the August BLS release due September 4. Consensus forecasts cluster around 4.1% to 4.2%, reflecting expectations of modest payroll rebound to roughly 50,000 amid persistently low layoffs and constrained labor supply from elevated retirements and subdued participation. The tight spread between these outcomes underscores uncertainty over whether participation will normalize or further compress the rate, with the Fed viewing current levels near full employment. Broader indicators like stable claims and demographic headwinds support limited movement, though any surprise in hiring or workforce re-entry could shift the result.