- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?3¢3%
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?13¢13%
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?36¢36%
OpenAI’s September 2026 announcement of an AI-generated proof resolving the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has become the dominant catalyst shaping trader sentiment on whether CMI will declare any Millennium Prize solved by the contract date. The company’s Lean-formalized claim of a finite-time singularity drew immediate attention from the math community, prompting CMI’s September 11 statement that the problem appears “apparently settled” while stressing its deliberately slow process: peer-reviewed publication, broad acceptance, and roughly two years of scrutiny before any prize consideration. Only the Poincaré conjecture has ever reached official resolution, awarded in 2010. With Navier-Stokes still labeled “active” and competing human-AI efforts adding uncertainty, markets hinge on verification timelines, upcoming community reviews, and whether CMI issues further updates before the deadline.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.