- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?15¢
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?34¢
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?38¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Recent claims of quantum-assisted resolutions for all six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems emerged in late July and early August 2026 from AIX Global, yet the Clay Mathematics Institute continues listing them open with no declarations issued. Traders focus on CMI’s exacting peer-review standards and historical precedent—only the Poincaré Conjecture has been awarded since 2000—while monitoring preprint scrutiny, Fields Medal-adjacent advances, and the ongoing lecture series through April 2026. High uncertainty persists around verification timelines, with any formal submission likely requiring years of community validation before prize consideration.