Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?88¢
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic's earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeted fall IPO window as soon as September or October have anchored trader consensus at an 87.5% implied probability that it will list before OpenAI. The Claude developer completed a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation in May, with annualized recurring revenue reaching an estimated $47 billion, outpacing OpenAI's growth trajectory. In contrast, OpenAI filed its S-1 a week later and shifted in late June toward potentially delaying its debut into 2027 amid ongoing profitability questions. Upcoming catalysts include the pace of SEC reviews for both companies, any public S-1 releases later this summer, and broader market conditions that could accelerate or stall either listing.