- Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?20¢20%
- Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?16¢16%
- Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?13¢13%
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?8¢8%
- Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?8¢8%
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?6¢6%
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?6¢6%
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?6¢6%
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?5¢5%
Trump has already granted clemency to more than 1,700 individuals since January 2025, including a blanket pardon and commutations for roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on his first day in office, plus targeted grants to political allies such as Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and Mark Meadows, along with figures like Changpeng Zhao and George Santos. Recent developments include on-the-spot pardons issued at rallies, signals that administration officials may receive protection before the end of the term, and donor-linked grants that have drawn congressional scrutiny and investigations into influence by cabinet members. Patterns show heavy emphasis on Republican supporters, MAGA-aligned individuals, and cases involving campaign finance or fraud convictions, with restitution often waived. With the 2026 midterms approaching and ongoing reports of applications bypassing traditional DOJ processes, trader focus centers on additional grants to donors, officials, or high-profile cases that could occur before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.