- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?71¢71%
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?31¢31%
- 3%70.5%Avengers: Doomsday$697.5k Vol.
- 5%30.5%Spider-Man: Brand New Day$423.3k Vol.
Avengers: Doomsday commands the strongest trader consensus for the biggest 2026 domestic opening weekend due to record-breaking presales exceeding $70 million domestically and $100 million globally months ahead of its December 18 release, alongside early tracking estimates projecting $340–410 million. This positions it to surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s July record of $360.1 million, fueled by MCU event status, Russo brothers direction, and Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. Brand New Day’s established benchmark and strong franchise performance keep its shares relevant but secondary, while The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’s recent November debut and Dune: Messiah’s same-weekend IMAX focus register minimal momentum against these holiday blockbusters.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all movies in 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) 3-day opening weekend figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on that movie's The Numbers page, accessible via https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekend" figure for its first 3-day weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used. Movies will be ranked by domestic 3-day opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking. This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend, and regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. A listed movie may resolve to "No" as soon as finalized figures show it cannot finish in 1st place. If neither source has a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's figure will be the one The Numbers reports at that time, or, if The Numbers reports none, the one Box Office Mojo reports at that time. A movie for which neither source reports any figure by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not be considered.