- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?75¢
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?5¢
- Will SpaceXAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?1¢
- Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?2¢
- Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?1¢
- Will Xiaomi have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?2¢
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?2¢
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?2¢
- Will MiniMax have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Anthropic holds a commanding 74.5% implied probability in the Text Arena Math AI market due to its recent breakthrough on the Riemann zeta function, where an unreleased Claude research version raised a key lower bound from 41.6% to 67.2% in days using advanced reasoning chains. This aligns with Claude models topping MathArena and Text Arena leaderboards for competition-level math and proof tasks. OpenAI trails at 16.5% on strong but less publicized GPT-5.6 results, while Google sits at 5.9% amid competitive but secondary Gemini benchmarks. Traders see Anthropic's demonstrated math capabilities and rapid iteration as the decisive edge heading into October, though new releases from rivals could still shift outcomes before resolution.