Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?67¢
- Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?2¢
- Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?<1¢
- Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?31¢
- Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?<1¢
- Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?1¢
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Strong El Niño conditions are strengthening rapidly across the tropical Pacific, with NOAA reporting sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in key regions and over 90% odds of a very strong event by late 2026. This natural climate pattern, layered on long-term anthropogenic warming, has driven January–June 2026 global surface temperatures to third- or fourth-highest on record per NOAA and NASA analyses, positioning the full year for top rankings. Trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% implied probability for first place and 30.5% for second aligns with model projections of record or near-record warmth, though outcomes hinge on the precise peak intensity and duration of El Niño effects through year-end.