- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?48¢
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?6¢
- Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?13¢
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?6¢
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?99¢
- Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?86¢
- Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?94¢
- Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?57¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
As of August 20, 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,777 measles cases across 47 U.S. jurisdictions, already exceeding the full-year 2025 record of 2,289 and marking the highest annual total since 1991. Over 94% of cases link to outbreaks, with 93% occurring in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals, reflecting sustained community transmission driven by declining MMR vaccine coverage. Official data show most infections among children and adolescents, with 7% hospitalization rates and no deaths reported. The Pan American Health Organization plans to review U.S. measles elimination status later this year, while ongoing surveillance and fall school reopenings could influence further spread through November and December reporting periods.