- Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?68¢
- Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?2¢
- Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30?<1¢
- Will the median home value in the US be between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30?16¢
- Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?7¢
- Will the median home value in the US be at least $454,000 on September 30?<1¢
- Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Recent data releases underscore softening conditions in the U.S. housing market that align with the heavy weighting toward the sub-$419,000 bracket. National Association of Realtors figures showed the median existing-home sales price at $434,100 in July 2026, down from $442,800 in June, while Realtor.com reported the median list price falling 1.0% month-over-month to $424,500 in August, marking the tenth consecutive year-over-year decline. Redfin’s July median sale price stood at $407,730, and Zillow’s Home Value Index hovered near $372,000. Persistent 6.5% mortgage rates, rising active listings, and an elevated share of homes with price reductions have weighed on buyer demand and transaction volumes. With September 30 resolution imminent, the latest monthly prints and ongoing inventory buildup continue to anchor trader consensus around these lower levels.