- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth <1%?<1¢<1%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 1% to 2.5%?14¢14%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 2.5% to 4%?34¢34%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 4% to 5.5%?50¢50%
- Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 5.5%+?<1¢<1%
Walmart’s Q3 U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel face a tougher year-over-year comparison after Q2 FY2027 growth slowed to 2.6 percent—the weakest pace in years—primarily due to a 125-basis-point pharmacy headwind from Inflation Reduction Act pricing changes. Traders are pricing the 2.5–4 percent range at 51.5 percent implied probability as the base case, reflecting persistent consumer caution among lower- and middle-income households alongside moderating transaction and ticket growth. Offsetting factors include continued share gains, especially with higher-income shoppers, mid-single-digit grocery momentum, and e-commerce contributions exceeding 400 basis points. The company’s raised full-year sales guidance of 4–5 percent and upcoming Q3 earnings release, with holiday volumes ahead, remain key swing variables for whether results shift toward the 4–5.5 percent bucket.
Rules
This market will resolve according to Walmart's Q3 Walmart U.S. comparable sales (ex-fuel) growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.