- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be less than 225,000?3¢3%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 225,000 and 250,000?9¢9%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 250,000 and 275,000?3¢3%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?37¢37%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 300,000 and 325,000?40¢40%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 325,000 and 350,000?14¢14%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be 350,000 or more?4¢4%
The closely matched probabilities for 275K-325K total ballots in Vermont's November 3 gubernatorial contest stem from historical turnout variability in the state's off-year elections, where recent cycles produced 290K-370K votes amid roughly 500K registered voters. A competitive general election matchup between incumbent Republican Phil Scott and Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo, with recent polls showing narrow margins and fluctuating leads, has heightened engagement potential without clear signals on mobilization. The August primary saw stronger-than-expected Democratic participation at about 22% of registered voters, yet offered modest precedent for general election behavior. Late-campaign events such as the October 22 debate and any final-week shifts in enthusiasm or weather could still influence participation rates within the resolution window.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.