- Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?9¢9%
- Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?11¢11%
- Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?35¢35%
- Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?25¢25%
- Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?17¢17%
- Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?8¢8%
Ongoing US sanctions and a naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iran's oil exports since August 2026, with seaborne revenues projected to largely dry up by mid-December and removing a key source of foreign currency inflows that previously supported the rial. This has coincided with accelerated currency weakening to around 2.6–2.8 million rials per dollar on the free market amid inflation near 70–90 percent and broader economic contraction. Central bank interventions, including dollar sales to curb volatility, have provided temporary stabilization, yet persistent revenue shortfalls and uncertainty over diplomatic negotiations or escalation risks keep near-term outcomes contested. Trader consensus clusters in the 2.5–3.5 million range because these pressures could intensify or ease depending on blockade enforcement, any sanctions relief, or domestic policy responses before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.