- Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?84¢84%
Recent polling averages place the PP on approximately 31-32% and Vox on 18-19%, projecting a combined 190-200 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority in nearly all simulations. This positioning has held steady since the October 5 snap election call, triggered after the government lost votes on housing measures amid protests over evictions and rents. The left remains fragmented, with the PSOE projected around 106-110 seats and its former allies split between Sumar-led and Podemos lists in most regions, limiting any path to a governing majority. Vox’s projected gains, often doubling its 2023 representation, further reinforce the right-wing bloc’s advantage ahead of the November 29 vote. Trader consensus reflects these consistent seat forecasts across multiple pollsters.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Seats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).