- SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?32¢32%
Recent orbital achievement on Flight 14 in late September has advanced Starship testing, yet the 67% market-implied odds for "No" stem from the absence of upper-stage tower catches or reflights after orbital missions. Ship recovery from Flight 13 provided initial post-flight heat shield and engine data in October, but controlled reentry survival and rapid turnaround for both stages remain unproven. Booster catches occurred earlier, while orbital propellant transfer and repeated ship reuse—essential for full reusability—lack demonstrated timelines before year-end. Flight 15, potentially targeting a ship catch in November, represents the next near-term catalyst, though historical test pacing and unresolved thermal protection challenges sustain trader caution on completing all criteria by December 2026.
Rules
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.