- Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?96¢
- Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?2¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Dakota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Incumbent Republican Mike Rounds seeks a third term in South Dakota's solidly Republican Senate seat, facing independent challenger Brian Bengs after Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August 2026. Rounds secured the Republican nomination with 76% in the June primary against limited opposition. Recent polling shows Rounds ahead by double digits, consistent with the state's voting patterns and Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating. Trader consensus reflects the limited path for any challenger in this environment, where Republican Senate candidates have dominated recent cycles. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as major candidate health events, scandals, or an unexpected national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence ahead of the November 2026 general election.