- Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?100¢100%
- Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?0¢0%
- Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?0¢0%
- Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?0¢0%
- Will AfD win 50 or more seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?0¢0%
- Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?0¢0%
The 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election on September 6 produced results that align closely with the market's leading 38-41 seat range for the AfD. The party secured 43.8% of the second vote and 39 of 83 seats, more than doubling its 2021 share while the CDU collapsed to 17.2% and 15 seats. Record turnout of 77.8% and the BSW clearing the 5% threshold with five seats prevented an AfD absolute majority. Preliminary counts from the state election authority and broadcasters have remained consistent, with the AfD winning most direct mandates. Final certification or minor adjustments from outstanding ballots could still shift the precise total by one or two seats, though movement outside 38-41 appears improbable given the scale of the reported outcome.
Rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election. If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).