- Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?1¢
- Will AfD win 34-37 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?6¢
- Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?59¢
- Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?31¢
- Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?7¢
- Will AfD win 50 or more seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election. If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent August 2026 polls from INSA, pollytix, and Infratest dimap show the AfD holding steady at 41–43% voter support ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, far ahead of the CDU at 22–24% and Die Linke near 13%, with most smaller parties clustered at or below the 5% threshold. This vote share under mixed-member proportional rules for the 83-seat parliament typically converts to roughly 38–44 seats depending on overhang mandates and minor-party performance, leaving an absolute majority of 42 seats within reach but not assured. Other parties continue to exclude coalitions with the AfD, reinforcing the importance of standalone results. Trader consensus pricing the 38–41 seat range highest reflects the absence of late polling surges and the narrow margin to majority in current projections.