- Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?98¢
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Elon Musk’s commanding 98% market-implied odds reflect his unmatched net-worth lead, currently estimated near $860 billion—hundreds of billions ahead of rivals—anchored by substantial stakes in Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. The June 2026 SpaceX IPO briefly propelled him past $1 trillion before post-debut volatility trimmed gains, yet the diversified portfolio has preserved an insurmountable gap through mid-August. Traders view this structural dominance, built on sustained valuation strength across AI, EVs, and aerospace, as durable through year-end. An upset would require an extraordinary simultaneous plunge in his core holdings paired with outsized gains for multiple competitors, a low-probability convergence given current trajectories and historical resilience.