- Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?97¢
- Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?1¢
- Will Michael Dell be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?<1¢
- Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?<1¢
Elon Musk holds a dominant 96.9% implied probability as the richest person by December 31, 2026, driven by Tesla's robust electric vehicle demand, expanding energy storage business, and SpaceX's rising valuation amid ongoing Starlink and Starship progress. These factors have created substantial momentum in Musk's net worth relative to more stable portfolios held by Warren Buffett or Jeff Bezos. Traders view the lead as durable given limited time remaining and historical patterns of tech-driven wealth surges. An upset remains possible only through a sharp market correction hitting Tesla shares or an outsized gain by another billionaire, though such scenarios appear remote based on current industry trajectories.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.