- Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat?95¢95%
- Will the Republican Party win the RI-02 House seat?4¢4%
Incumbent Democrat Seth Magaziner holds a commanding position in Rhode Island’s 2nd congressional district race due to the district’s Democratic lean, his strong support among party voters, and consistent polling leads of 13 to 16 points in October surveys. Recent Embold Research and Emerson College/WPRI polls showed Magaziner at 52-55% against Victor Mellor at 39%, with the incumbent backed by roughly 90% of likely Democrats. Mellor, a businessman and Marine veteran who won the Republican primary, has outraised the incumbent through self-funding but faces structural headwinds in a seat last won by Republicans in prior cycles. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing aligns with these fundamentals and race ratings labeling the contest Solid Democratic. A late surge among independents, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen developments in the final week before the November 3 election remain the main scenarios that could narrow the margin.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).