- Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?83¢
- Will "Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?76¢
- Will "The Black Ball" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?73¢
- Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?65¢
- Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?59¢
- Will "Ink" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?56¢
- Will "Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?50¢
- Will "Clarissa" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?30¢
- Will "The Whisper Man" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?26¢
- Will "The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?18¢
- Will "Wildwood" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?13¢
- Will "Cry to Heaven" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?9¢
The Invite leads early industry predictions for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination at the 99th Oscars, buoyed by strong critical reception for Rashida Jones and Will McCormack’s sharp reworking of the Spanish original and its contained, character-driven appeal. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three follow closely, leveraging prestige source material, major studio backing, and Nolan’s proven Academy track record with epics. Netflix’s La Bola Negra and Amazon’s Project Hail Mary round out the top tier, aided by festival momentum—including La Bola Negra’s Toronto People’s Choice win—and Drew Goddard’s proven adaptation skills. With eligibility closing December 31, 2026, and nominations voting set for mid-January, WGA and critics’ group recognition plus late-year reviews will shape the five nominees announced January 21. Trader consensus reflects these verified campaign and precursor signals while recognizing how quickly buzz can shift in a crowded field.
Rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.