- Will John Malkovich win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?46¢46%
- Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?20¢20%
- Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?15¢15%
- Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?8¢8%
- Will Anthony Ippolito win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢4%
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?2¢2%
- Will Robert Pattinson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?2¢2%
- Will Sebastian Stan win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?<1¢<1%
- Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?<1¢<1%
- Will Ryan Gosling win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?<1¢<1%
- Will John Turturro win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?<1¢<1%
- Will Yura Borisov win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?<1¢<1%
2%46.3%John Malkovich$38.8k Vol.
3%20%Andrew Scott$30.6k Vol.
15%Matt Damon$49.9k Vol.
1%7.5%Tom Cruise$33.8k Vol.
1%3.7%Anthony Ippolito$13k Vol.
2.3%Timothée Chalamet$15.4k Vol.
2.1%Robert Pattinson$14.5k Vol.
1%Sebastian Stan$11.9k Vol.
0.9%Jaafar Jackson$11.5k Vol.
0.8%Ryan Gosling$12.6k Vol.
0.8%John Turturro$11.6k Vol.
0.4%Yura Borisov$5.3k Vol.
With no clear frontrunner and market-implied odds clustered around 45-50% for several contenders, trader sentiment reflects the wide-open early stage of the 2027 Oscars race. John Malkovich holds the edge at 46.8% thanks to strong festival reception and reviews for his lead turn in Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, capitalizing on a veteran comeback narrative. Andrew Scott (23.0%) follows closely on the strength of Elsinore buzz, while Matt Damon (15.0%) benefits from The Odyssey’s scale and Christopher Nolan pedigree. Theatrical releases, critics’ awards, and guild nominations in the coming months will shape momentum ahead of the March ceremony, where historical patterns favor established performers with precursor support.
Rules
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.