- Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 23, 2026?34¢34%
- Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026?65¢65%
- Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by December 7, 2026?80¢80%
- 34%November 23$1.8k Vol.
- 1%65%November 30$5.2k Vol.
- 80%December 7$45 Vol.
Elon Musk’s November 10 update on X signals that Grok 4.8 pre-training has finished on the new C++ inference and RL stack derived from Starlink software, with reinforcement learning now underway and evals improving ahead of a planned soft rollout to Grok Bot users later this week. This follows the September 14 announcement of the 2.5-trillion-parameter model and a pattern of iterative 4.x releases—Grok 4.7 shipped September 21 after similar RL tuning—while xAI’s public model list still lists only 4.7 as current. Traders are watching whether the rewritten training stack accelerates capability gains relative to competitors such as Anthropic’s Opus 5.5 or OpenAI’s upcoming models, and whether any last-minute safety or benchmark work delays the rollout beyond late November.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.