- Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026?66¢66%
Microsoft AI’s MAI-Thinking-1, a 35B-active-parameter MoE reasoning model released in public preview on Foundry in August 2026 after its June Build debut, established the baseline for in-house reasoning performance with strong AIME and SWE-Bench results. Trader sentiment now centers on the October 15 completion of pre-training for its larger successor foundation, MAI-Base-2, which will undergo post-training to produce the next dedicated thinking model. Microsoft’s independent “hill-climbing” pipeline, expanding Maia inference hardware, and competitive positioning against models like Claude and GPT variants add momentum, while timelines for any MAI-Thinking-2 release or Base-3 start remain fluid amid typical post-training cycles.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1. Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1. Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.