- Will Linke win between 8% and 11% of all valid second votes?60¢
- Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?6¢
- Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes?36¢
- Will Linke win at least 14% of all valid second votes?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA in late August 2026 places Die Linke at a steady 11 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, slightly above its 9.9 percent result from the 2021 Landtagswahl. This consistency, amid an AfD lead near 35-37 percent and SPD gains to around 29-32 percent, has anchored trader expectations for the September 20 election. The BSW's emergence at roughly 4 percent introduces some left-leaning vote fragmentation risk, yet Linke support has shown resilience in surveys conducted 2-3 weeks before voting. With the contest now in its final phase, late shifts in turnout or coalition signaling could still influence whether the party finishes just below or above 11 percent.