- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?4¢4%
Trader consensus heavily favors "No" on a magnitude 6.5+ earthquake within 50 miles of Los Angeles before year-end 2026, reflecting the low baseline annual probability of such events. USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast data indicate roughly a 60% chance of an M6.7+ quake in the broader region over 30 years, translating to an annualized rate of roughly 2-4% near the urban core, consistent with independent models estimating just 0.2% odds for an M6.5+ mainshock in central LA over any single year. Current USGS monitoring shows only routine background seismicity—scattered events below magnitude 4—with no foreshock sequences or strain anomalies on faults such as the San Andreas or Puente Hills. With roughly 2.5 months remaining, this compressed window reinforces the market-implied odds near 96% for "No." An abrupt foreshock swarm or unexpected rupture on a nearby segment remains a low-probability but plausible outlier that could shift outcomes before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601). For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point. If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.