How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?<1¢
- Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?10¢
- Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?41¢
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?37¢
- Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?12¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
As of mid-August 2026, USGS data confirm 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones with notable events including the 7.8 Philippines, dual 7.2/7.5 Venezuela sequence, and recent 7.4 Colombia and 7.7 Indonesia quakes. This pace aligns with the long-term annual average of 15–16 such events, though natural year-to-year variability—driven by tectonic plate interactions and seismic gaps—allows totals to range from roughly 10 to 20 without any sustained global increase. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred yet, and the absence of major aftershock clusters or unusual activity in high-risk areas like the Japan Trench keeps the market-implied odds tightly balanced between the 14–16 and 17–19 bins. Ongoing USGS monitoring through year-end will track whether late-year clustering pushes totals above or below the historical mean.