- Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?6¢
- Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?13¢
- Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?23¢
Moonshot AI has not announced or released any Kimi K4 model as of mid-October 2026, with its flagship remaining the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 launched in July via API and open weights. Trader sentiment reflects this absence of confirmation, driven instead by a July report on Moonshot seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a next-generation system and an early-October Nomura note citing internal work on a 5-6 trillion parameter successor alongside a planned Kimi K3.1 update with stronger agent capabilities expected around mid-month. The company’s rapid point-release cadence (K2.5 through K2.7 before K3) and ongoing U.S. export-control scrutiny around compute access continue to shape expectations, while competitive pressure from U.S. frontier labs keeps focus on verified capability jumps rather than naming conventions. Any official K3.1 launch or further hardware disclosures could shift near-term odds.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.