- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?<1¢
- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?21¢
- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?<1¢
- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?75¢
- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026?<1¢
- Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ). The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) has hovered near 1.7-1.9% YoY through mid-2026, but market-implied odds heavily favor a 2.0-2.4% outcome for the full year as firms accelerate pass-through of higher import costs amid yen weakness and elevated crude prices tied to Middle East tensions. Government energy subsidies are fading, allowing utility and goods prices to rise, while robust wage growth above 5% supports broader demand-driven pressures that the Bank of Japan now sees lifting underlying inflation toward or above its 2% target by late fiscal 2026. Recent July data showed core-core at 1.9%, aligning with BoJ communications ahead of the September 17-18 policy meeting, where another 25 basis point hike to 1.25% is widely anticipated. This trajectory reflects trader consensus that normalization of monetary policy and cost dynamics will anchor readings in the low-2% range rather than sustaining the sub-2% levels seen earlier in the year or pushing materially higher.