- Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in August?13¢
- Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August?12¢
- Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August?23¢
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?17¢
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?17¢
- Will the US add at least 150k jobs in August?5¢
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Recent July nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 with sizable downward revisions to prior months, underscoring a cooling labor market amid a shrinking labor force and subdued hiring demand. Low initial jobless claims near 206,000 signal limited layoffs, yet consensus forecasts for August cluster around 55,000–65,000 gains, reflecting the tension between soft private-sector momentum and potential benchmark revisions due August 28. Trader sentiment across Polymarket buckets remains closely contested because outcomes hinge on whether labor-force contraction or employment weakness dominates the household survey, with wage growth and sector details serving as key swing factors ahead of the September FOMC.