- Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?38¢
- Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?43¢
- Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,490 but below 3,500 ft?12¢
- Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?22¢
This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Current Lake Powell elevation stands near 3,518 ft with storage at roughly 21% of capacity, following below-average 2026 unregulated inflows of about 3.58 million acre-feet (37% of normal) and April–July runoff at only 18% of average. Severely depleted Rocky Mountain snowpack and Upper Basin precipitation at 83% of normal have driven these deficits, prompting Glen Canyon Dam releases reduced to 6.0 million acre-feet plus supplemental Flaming Gorge transfers under drought plans. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 24-month studies project most-probable end-2026 levels around 3,508–3,516 ft, with notable downside risk below 3,510 ft in 2027 under minimum scenarios. Trader consensus clustering between 3,500–3,510 ft and above 3,510 ft reflects uncertainty over 2027 snowpack recovery, evaporation rates, and operational buffers above the 3,490 ft minimum power pool.