- Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?14¢
- Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,033 but below 1,038 ft?12¢
- Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation be at least 1,028 but below 1,033 ft?19¢
- Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?56¢
This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.
Lake Mead currently sits near 1,039 feet above mean sea level—its lowest level since filling in the 1930s—with storage at roughly 24–26% of capacity amid ongoing summer drawdown. Persistent megadrought conditions across the Colorado River Basin, driven by below-average Rocky Mountain snowpack and reduced spring inflows, combined with high evaporative losses, agricultural and municipal demand, and limited upstream releases from Lake Powell, continue to lower the reservoir. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 24-month studies project further declines through late 2026, while new shortage guidelines and conservation measures have only slowed the rate of loss. These verified trends underpin the 54.5% market-implied probability of dropping below 1,028 feet, as seasonal patterns and hydrological deficits make deeper declines the consensus outcome absent exceptional winter precipitation.