- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in November 2026?<1¢<1%
The dispersed probabilities across dozens of tweet-count ranges for Elon Musk's November 2026 activity on X underscore the inherent unpredictability of his posting volume. Traders price in wide variance because his output fluctuates sharply with business developments at xAI and Tesla, regulatory news, and personal or political events, none of which have locked in a clear pattern this close to the month. Historical monthly totals have swung from several hundred to well over a thousand during high-engagement periods, creating a market where even the 34% implied probability on 1,000-plus tweets leaves room for lower outcomes if activity moderates. Key differentiators include platform algorithm changes, major product launches, or external news cycles that could either amplify or dampen engagement in the final weeks of the year.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of November 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.