- Will Core PCE MoM be -0.2% or less in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE MoM be -0.1% in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in July?<1¢
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.1% in July?2¢
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?73¢
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?26¢
- Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% or more in July?1¢
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
The imminent August 26 Bureau of Economic Analysis release of July Core PCE serves as the primary driver of current Polymarket pricing, with the 0.2% month-over-month outcome commanding a 73% implied probability. Recent July CPI data, showing core prices up 0.2% month-over-month and the year-over-year rate easing to 2.5%, alongside June's softer 0.1% Core PCE print, have anchored trader expectations near consensus forecasts of 0.18–0.20%. Upward pressures from AI-linked computer hardware, software, and portfolio management fees are offset by lower energy costs and moderating services inflation, limiting odds of a 0.3% or higher outcome to 26%. Markets price this Fed-preferred gauge as reflecting steady but contained underlying inflation absent major new shocks.