- Will Alcides Fernandes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?12¢
- Will Capitão Wagner win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?35¢
- Will Cid Gomes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?24¢
- Will Guilherme Theophilo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?<1¢
- Will Lino Alves win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luizianne win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?28¢
- Will Catarina Matos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?2¢
- Will Reginaldo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?<1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polls from institutes including Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Ipsos-Ipec show Cid Gomes (PSB) leading consolidated first- and second-choice intentions for the two Senate seats in Ceará, while the contest for second place remains tight between Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) and Luizianne Lins (Rede). These surveys, conducted after party conventions, place Wagner and Lins in technical ties or narrow leads for the remaining spot, with other candidates such as Alcides Fernandes trailing. Voter behavior around paired choices, regional strongholds, and alignment with the gubernatorial race contribute to the close positioning, as confirmed results have not yet separated the frontrunners. Further polling or campaign events before the October vote could clarify separation in trader assessments of second-place probabilities.