- Base iPhone 18 released by February 28, 2027?14¢14%
- Base iPhone 18 released by March 31, 2027?78¢78%
- Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?89¢89%
Apple's decision to skip the base iPhone 18 during its September 2026 event, focusing instead on premium models like the iPhone 18 Pro series and the new foldable iPhone Duo, has anchored trader sentiment toward a spring 2027 release. Recent supply chain leaks indicate production for the standard model begins in late November 2026, with Apple preparing a large inventory run after strong iPhone 17 sales. The device is expected alongside the iPhone 18e, featuring an A20 chip, smaller Dynamic Island, and C2 modem, while maintaining a design similar to the prior generation. This split-launch strategy, driven by supply constraints and margin priorities, creates clear resolution thresholds around March 2027 announcements or shipments, with limited upside for any earlier surprise drop.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.