- AWS service disrupted by September 30?9¢9%
- AWS service disrupted by October 31?45¢45%
- AWS service disrupted by November 30?56¢56%
Recent AWS service disruptions stem primarily from the major October 2025 US-East-1 outage, triggered by a DNS automation failure in DynamoDB that cascaded into elevated errors across EC2, load balancers, and dependent services for roughly 15 hours. This event, the third significant incident in five years from the same critical region, underscored single-point-of-failure risks in the world's largest cloud infrastructure. Geopolitical factors have added pressure, with drone-related damage causing repeated disruptions in Bahrain and UAE availability zones through mid-2026. Traders monitor the AWS Health Dashboard for official “disrupted” classifications, noting that minor packet loss and regional issues continue while companies accelerate multi-region and multi-cloud strategies to mitigate future impact.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).