- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?<1¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?3¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?14¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?34¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?33¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?13¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?2¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?2¢
- Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Recent July data showing the unemployment rate at 4.1% alongside a -23,000 nonfarm payrolls print has anchored trader expectations for the August release, with consensus forecasts centering on stability near 4.1% or a modest rise to 4.2% as labor force participation potentially rebounds. Slowing job growth reflects demographic constraints and lower immigration rather than rising layoffs, keeping the market near the Fed’s full-employment threshold and consistent with its June projections. The closely matched 34.5% and 32.5% implied probabilities for 4.1% versus 4.2% highlight uncertainty around household survey participation trends and any August payroll rebound, with key swing factors including ADP private payrolls, initial claims, and PMI employment components ahead of the September 4 BLS report.