- Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.3% or more in August?<1¢
- Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.2% in August?4¢
- Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in August?2¢
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in August?<1¢
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in August?7¢
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?29¢
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?43¢
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?11¢
- Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in August?<1¢
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recent July CPI data showed a soft 0.1% month-over-month headline rise and 0.22% core increase, cooling from prior prints amid easing energy prices and moderating shelter costs, which has anchored trader expectations for August. Cleveland Fed nowcasts and analyst forecasts, including TD Securities' 0.39% headline projection, point to a modest rebound driven by potential gasoline price normalization and firmer services components, positioning 0.3% and 0.4% as the leading market-implied outcomes with combined probability exceeding 70%. Persistent core goods pressures, tariff pass-through risks, and geopolitical oil supply factors introduce upside skew toward 0.5% or higher, while the upcoming August 26 PCE release and September 11 CPI report remain key near-term catalysts shaping these probabilities. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects this data-driven balance amid stable but elevated year-over-year rates near 3.4%.