- Will Cabo Daciolo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will David Almeida win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Gilberto Vasconcelos win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Isael Munduruku win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?57¢
- Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?7¢
- Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?36¢
The Amazonas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Omar Aziz leads trader consensus for the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election due to his established profile as a senator and former governor, plus a broad alliance including PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and Lula-aligned parties, which positions him ahead in recent polling at 26%. Roberto Cidade, the interim governor backed by União Brasil and the state legislative machine, trails at 18% alongside Professora Maria do Carmo (PL, aligned with Flávio Bolsonaro) at 16% and former Manaus mayor David Almeida at 15%. A fragmented field, 16% undecided voters, and 43% who say their choice remains open keep the contest competitive ahead of the October 4 first round. Scheduled debates and free electoral airtime starting late August could shift momentum, while second-round simulations show Aziz in close matchups against the top challengers.