- Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?56¢56%
- Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?32¢32%
- Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?6¢6%
- Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?5¢5%
- Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?3¢3%
- Will Z.ai be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?3¢3%
- Will Tencent be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?1¢1%
- Will DeepSeek be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?<1¢<1%
- Will Moonshot be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?<1¢<1%
- Will Xiaomi be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?<1¢<1%
- Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?<1¢<1%
- Will Baidu be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?<1¢<1%
2%56%Meta$14.8k Vol.
7%31.9%Anthropic$13.3k Vol.
5.5%OpenAI$7.7k Vol.
3%5.2%Alibaba$2.4k Vol.
3.3%Google$9k Vol.
3.3%Z.ai$1.3k Vol.
1%Tencent$2k Vol.
1%DeepSeek$1.3k Vol.
0.8%Moonshot$1.7k Vol.
0.5%Xiaomi$1.5k Vol.
0.5%Meituan$1.7k Vol.
0.5%Baidu$1.2k Vol.
Meta's slight edge at 51.5% implied probability stems from its recent open-weight large language model releases that emphasize developer accessibility and style-control features, outpacing closed-model rivals in platform adoption metrics. This positions the company competitively against a broad field of labs clustered near 50%, where differentiation hinges on demonstrated capabilities in benchmarks, user engagement, and integration with existing ecosystems. Anthropic follows at 36.9% amid steady Claude iterations, while OpenAI and Google sit much lower, reflecting slower perceived progress on open-style controls. With resolution imminent, traders are watching for any late-November model updates or third-party evaluations that could shift sentiment in this tightly contested race.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".