- Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?49¢
- Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?38¢
- Will Tencent have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?4¢
- Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?3¢
- Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?2¢
- Will Nvidia have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?1¢
- Will Xiaomi have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?1¢
- Will Anthropic have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?<1¢
- Will Meta have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?<1¢
- Will xAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?<1¢
- Will Qwen have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?<1¢
- Will MiniMax have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?<1¢
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested race for second-highest OpenRouter large language model usage share the week of October 19, with AI lab F, AI lab G, and Other each at 50 percent implied probability alongside Google near 47 percent. This even positioning arises from intense competition among providers of affordable open-weight models, where factors like low per-token pricing, high throughput on flash variants, and strong results on developer tasks drive weekly token routing volumes. Chinese labs and established players such as OpenAI at 38 percent remain sensitive to daily fluctuations in batch traffic and new model availability. The open-weight cohort's dominance above 70 percent of tracked tokens adds further uncertainty, as small shifts in adoption could alter the final aggregation before resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.