- ¿Insultará públicamente Donald Trump a alguien el 23 de agosto de 2026?4¢
- ¿Donald Trump insultará públicamente a alguien el 25 de agosto de 2026?90¢
- ¿Insultará públicamente Donald Trump a alguien el 26 de agosto de 2026?89¢
- ¿Insultará públicamente Donald Trump a alguien el 27 de agosto de 2026?88¢
- ¿Donald Trump insultará públicamente a alguien el 28 de agosto de 2026?90¢
- ¿Insultará públicamente Donald Trump a alguien el 29 de agosto de 2026?91¢
- ¿Insultará públicamente Donald Trump a alguien el 30 de agosto de 2026?84¢
- ¿Donald Trump insultará públicamente a alguien el 31 de agosto de 2026?91¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trump’s established pattern of using personal attacks in public statements, including Truth Social posts and speeches, underpins high implied probabilities in date-specific markets for whether he will insult, mock, or attack an individual. As president in 2026, he continues targeting political opponents, media figures, and critics with nicknames and criticisms, a style documented across his first term, 2024 campaign, and current term. The July 2026 rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner featured extended remarks with multiple ad hominem comments aimed at journalists, Democrats, and entertainers, reinforcing trader expectations of ongoing behavior. Markets for late August dates reflect this consistency, with probabilities adjusting based on scheduled events such as appearances or major announcements that often coincide with pointed remarks. Resolution hinges on verifiable public statements meeting the market’s criteria for clear negative personal or professional attacks.