- Wird die nächste Nachwahl zum britischen Parlament bis zum 30. September einberufen?69¢
- Wird die nächste Nachwahl zum britischen Parlament bis zum 31. Dezember ausgerufen?92¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Recent UK parliamentary by-elections, including Clacton on 13 August 2026 following Nigel Farage’s resignation amid standards scrutiny and Makerfield on 18 June 2026 to enable Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament, have cleared the immediate pipeline. As of early September 2026, no new writ has been issued. Trader attention now centers on potential vacancies from Labour leadership pressures, with Keir Starmer’s reported decision to step down as an MP creating fresh procedural considerations for the party and Speaker’s office. Other drivers include health-related or constituency-specific resignations across parties, alongside the standard 21–27 working day timetable once a writ moves. The market’s pricing reflects the low near-term probability of an immediate trigger versus the higher likelihood of at least one additional contest before year-end, consistent with historical patterns of mid-term vacancies.