- Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?8¢8 %
- Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?7¢7 %
- Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?20¢20 %
- Will Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan be arrested in 2026?9¢9 %
- Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?6¢6 %
- Will Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026?9¢9 %
- Will Iván Mordisco be arrested in 2026?7¢7 %
- 4 %8 %Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar13,3 t $ vol.
- 2 %7 %Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar8,2 t $ vol.
- 17 %20,4 %Ricardo Ruiz Velasco64,5 t $ vol.
- 1 %8,9 %Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan5,7 t $ vol.
- 6 %Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez60,8 t $ vol.
- 4 %3,6 %Juan Reyes Mejía González40,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %8,5 %Juan Pablo Ledezma3,7 t $ vol.
- 4 %7 %Iván Mordisco2,1 t $ vol.
Mexican authorities have intensified operations against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) in 2026, following the February death of founder Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera during a military action. Coordinated efforts with DEA intelligence have produced multiple high-profile arrests, including Ramón Álvarez Ayala (“R1”) in July, regional coordinators in September and October, and Rafael Álvarez Ayala (“R2”), leader of the “Los Rs” cell, on November 8 in Zapopan after a shootout that also netted 19 associates. Additional detentions of Sinaloa Cartel regional figures occurred in Chiapas on November 11. These developments, driven by U.S.-Mexico information sharing, extradition warrants, and pressure on extortion and trafficking networks, shape trader assessments of remaining leadership targets through year-end.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.