- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?2¢2 %
- Putin out as President of Russia by March 31, 2027?6¢6 %
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?10¢10 %
- 1,9 %December 31, 202627,7 mio. $ vol.
- 5,5 %March 31, 20272,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %9,5 %June 30, 2027849,6 t $ vol.
Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s political system as of November 2026, with no verified signs of imminent removal despite ongoing Ukraine war diplomacy and recent government adjustments. He participated in October meetings with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff that produced agreement on trilateral technical talks with Ukraine scheduled after November 10, focused on post-conflict security arrangements, while directing a major cabinet reshuffle that curtailed Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s administrative authority to prioritize war spending. Putin, who turned 74 in October, continues public engagements on foreign policy and African partnerships without indications of health-related incapacity or elite challenges. Constitutional succession rules would transfer power to the prime minister pending elections if he left office, but current trader consensus assigns low probabilities to departure by mid-2027 given the absence of triggering events such as major military setbacks, sanctions relief tied to leadership change, or documented internal power shifts. Upcoming November talks represent the nearest scheduled development that could indirectly influence stability assessments.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.