- Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?38¢38 %
- Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?26¢26 %
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?26¢26 %
- Will Michael Malchieli be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?25¢25 %
- Will Aryeh Deri be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?15¢15 %
- Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?13¢13 %
- Will Miri Regev be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?9¢9 %
- Will Moshe Arbel be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?9¢9 %
- Will Keren Terner Eyal be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?7¢7 %
- Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?7¢7 %
- Will Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?6¢6 %
- Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?4¢4 %
- 4 %37,5 %No Next Minister by Feb 2817,5 t $ vol.
1 %25,8 %Yoram Cohen391,5 $ vol.
1 %25,7 %Avigdor Lieberman316,8 $ vol.
1 %25 %Michael Malchieli3 t $ vol.
15,4 %Aryeh Deri501,5 $ vol.
12,5 %Yoav Ben-Tzur2,6 t $ vol.
8,8 %Miri Regev1,1 t $ vol.
8,5 %Moshe Arbel1,2 t $ vol.
7,3 %Keren Terner Eyal355,2 $ vol.
7,2 %Orit Farkash-Hacohen421,5 $ vol.
5,6 %Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)383,1 $ vol.
3,9 %Ayelet Shaked781,9 $ vol.
The post-October 27, 2026 Knesset elections produced no majority, leaving coalition negotiations fluid as President Herzog prepares to task Gadi Eisenkot with government formation after he secured 67 recommendations. The Interior Ministry has operated without a permanent minister since Moshe Arbel’s 2025 resignation, with authorities temporarily shifted amid prior Shas exits and legal constraints on Netanyahu. Trader odds remain tightly clustered because portfolio allocation depends on final coalition math involving Likud, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and centrist or Arab-backed partners, where historical precedents favor Likud or Shas control yet current vetoes and bargaining over related security and religious portfolios create multiple viable paths. Upcoming mandate decisions and any early coalition agreements could quickly shift implied probabilities among the listed candidates.
Regler
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Interior will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Interior” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Interior are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Interior assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.