- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?64¢64 %
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?31¢31 %
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
4 %63,5 %GoogleObjem 566,9 tis. $
1 %30,5 %AnthropicObjem 519,2 tis. $
4,5 %OpenAIObjem 295,1 tis. $
0,9 %xAIObjem 236,4 tis. $
0,8 %MetaObjem 291,9 tis. $
0,3 %AlibabaObjem 245,8 tis. $
0,3 %DeepSeekObjem 221,8 tis. $
0,3 %MoonshotObjem 231,6 tis. $
0,2 %Z.aiObjem 250,1 tis. $
Trader consensus positions Google with a 60.5% implied probability as the leader, reflecting its Gemini model's recent capability gains in multimodal reasoning, benchmark leadership, and seamless integration with Android and Google Cloud infrastructure. Anthropic follows at 31.0% on the strength of Claude's demonstrated safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption trends. OpenAI's 4.3% odds signal that competitors have narrowed gaps in large language model scale and real-world utility since earlier GPT releases. With resolution only weeks away, any final model updates or third-party evaluations could still alter these probabilities before year-end.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.